Export a query from psequel to numbers5/21/2023 Demand could have been higher if not for these issues and demand still has not returned to COVID-level peaks of 88 million bus used for food.”Ĭrop insurance is undoubtedly part of growers’ planting calculations and provide some additional incentive in 2023. “That may be shifting back a little bit,” he said, considering the “supply chain issues of 2022 from transportation to packing material to labor. Peterson explained, more spring wheat was added to grinds for some pasta products. When the spread between durum and hard red spring wheat widened to $3, Mr. And the US Department of Agriculture projects a 5% increase in food use of durum based on strong pasta demand. That’s still well above the lows of early 2021. ![]() Peterson pointed out, though he said no widespread switch to durum was expected since competitive crop options will blunt the impact of acreage gains.ĭomestic durum prices are off from their peak of a little over $12 a bu a year ago to just under $9. The cash durum bid premium to hard red spring wheat so far this spring, plus initial crop insurance coverage levels, favor increased durum acres, Mr. Analysts are split on planting intentions for harvest in 2023. ![]() Snow melt and timely planting would help the moisture-challenged region maintain yield and production recovery trendlines that bounced off 2021’s severe drought and shrugged off a short, wet planting season in 2022. That still could happen if temperatures upshift quickly, thawing a snow blanket measuring between 12 and 36 inches. The durum crops of North Dakota and Montana typically would be seeded starting mid- to late-April, all weather being cooperative. We’ll need a warmer April to avoid another delayed planting season.” That could be a real issue again this year since both the US and Canada just had very cold late February-early March periods. A lot of intended durum acres couldn’t get planted, so the grower had to look to other crops or take prevent-plant insurance payouts. Producers intended to plant more in 2022 but were dealt a tough hand with April snowstorms, pushing seeding out into June. It’s a pretty narrow base, so adverse US and Canada weather can have a pretty dramatic impact. “And many durum production areas don’t get the same precipitation as other US crop areas. “Your main ingredient is pretty dependent on weather,” he told pasta manufacturers and milling members of the NPA March 21. Growers were stymied in their attempts to take advantage the following year. Peterson said, plus producer prices off their peaks but still above 2021 lows set just before a severe drought that year hampered yields, cut into production, limited carryover and boosted prices. The bulk of the US durum crop will go in the ground amid more comfortable US supply levels than last year, a projected 5% increase in food use and export levels up 68% year-over-year, Mr.
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